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Media Guru

Guru Search Results: 19 matches were found

Thursday, August 15, 2002 #5467
Is there any specific form to estimate print media reach?

The Media Guru Answers(Friday, August 16, 2002 ):
You need a computer with software such as that offered by Telmar.

The calculation is extremely complex. As input, you need average issue audience, duplication between issues of the same publication and duplication between each possible pair of different publications. These must be combined using a complex formula such as the Beta-binomial function. There are variants of this formula, which might be preferred, depending on media type and other variables


Tuesday, July 30, 2002 #5441
Dear Guru, please solve our argument. We (media agency) are always arguing with creative agencies what size of the creative material should be. We prefer smaller ads or shorter spots, because they are cheaper and we can achieve better media results (reach and Frequency), and the creative people like a bigger ones. How could we estimate the optimal size?

The Media Guru Answers(Tuesday, July 30, 2002 ):
By the theory you express, all ads would be the smallest possible, just to get big reach and frequency numbers. Of course, this is ludicrous.

Creatives like bigger ads because they have more impact, and this thinking simplistically disregards the impact of a total schedule.

You need to begin by establishing what will be the standard ad, one that communicates effectively and with adequate impact, however that is defined. Typically :30 TV of page, 4c magazines are such standards. From there, you can make sensible arguments about whether R&F gains with smaller ads are worthwhile or whether the losses through larger ads are.


Thursday, July 11, 2002 #5406
We are in the middle of planning a small trade plan in the science field. First question - do you know of any syndicated research that measures these types of publications? The client believes that somewhere one must exist. Also, we need to determine the communication goals. How would we go about calculating reach and frequency for our plan when these publications are not measured? And duplication studies are not available? Any help would be great! Thanks.

The Media Guru Answers(Saturday, July 13, 2002 ):
There are syndicated medical and technology daya bases, but the Guru does not know of one for basic sciences.

Click here to see past Guru responses regarding procedures to estimate print reach


Tuesday, May 14, 2002 #5284
Hello, I am looking for some help on determing ROI for a print media campaign I've had running for about 8 months. Unfortunately, I cannot include sales as we are a B2B company and our product is pricey (read millions of dollars). So advertising is not going to make the phone ring with sales but I would like to put something together to determine how effective the print campaign is at awareness/perception. Or at least reach/frequency. Is there any rules of thumb I can go by or incorporate besides just circulation and cost per pub? Thank you.

The Media Guru Answers(Saturday, May 18, 2002 ):
Click here to see numerous past Guru responses, posted for your reference, regarding estimating reach and frequency.

Awareness / perception may be a useful metric in evaluating a plan, but unfortuately you really need to have a benchmark base level from before the campaign began.


Thursday, April 18, 2002 #5230
Dear Guru, Thank you so much for this GREAT website, really it was very helpful for us. I have a question, I think it was previously asked but I couldn’t find the answer I want. How outdoor mediums are evaluated? Such as Mupi “Road Dividers signs”, Billboards, and 4X3 signs. We are from Jordan located in the Middle East and we have a software which we use to evaluate other mediums such as TV, Radio, and print but not outdoor. I would really appreciate if you can work on this example: From the software: Total population is 2131000 (all the figures are from the software - research) The TG audience is Married Females SEC ABC&D: sec = monthly income 200JD + Total # of TG is 398,200 č 19% of the total population. We are selecting 100 faces of the 4mx3m signs across the Capital City. The total number of cars in the capital city “Amman” is 1,131,860 č 53% The period of the campaign is 1 week. I wonder if the above information might help you giving me the answer in evaluating this campaign and getting the figures for GRP’s , reach , AOTS. In anticipation of your kind reply & thanks in advance.

The Media Guru Answers(Saturday, April 20, 2002 ):
Generally, outdoor media are based on "DEC" or daily effective circulation, which is an estimate of the traffic passing the average posting and is oriented so that it can see signs. In the US, when Total DEC of a schedule equals the population, that is called a #100 showing or 100 GRP.

Techniques for estimating DEC vary from place to place and according to type of sign. A month of 100 GRP ought to have a reach of 95% or so. The Guru could not possibly have specific data on all the signage and demographic variants of all the countries in the world.


Thursday, January 24, 2002 #5033
Is there any data out there that provides ROI information on Radio/print/TV/Cable Schedules. Just some basic numbers. For example, we mostly know that direct mail averages about a 2% response. Is there a formula or somewhere I can go to get info for Radio or TV? For example #2 My client is placing a certain number of grps on Radio and wants to know of the people reached, how many will attend the event advertised (like a one day seminar). What they want to know is on average how many people reached respond to an ad (print/Radio/cable/TV). Any where I can find a rough estimate or some research- This is kind of like the "Ad Effectiveness Lab" that Arbitron is working on , but is not finished with.

The Media Guru Answers(Thursday, January 31, 2002 ):
There are too many variables to generalize. It depends much, much more on the message and product than on the medium. An event is different than a movie, which is different than an inexpensive household product which is purchased frequently, which is different than a big-ticket item bought every few years.

One good resource is an article, "Advertising Wearin and Wearout" in the September/October 1998 Journal of Advertisng Research.

For much more try The Advertising Research Foundation InfoCenter. For details about the InfoCenter, call 212-751-5656, extension 230.


Sunday, January 06, 2002 #4979
How can I estimate response rates to ads for a new product in a given region in various media (print and radio primarily) based on known data such as population, reach, etc. I need to make forward projections for marketing budget decisions.

The Media Guru Answers(Sunday, January 06, 2002 ):
There are too many variable with this vaguely stated question. Industry average for comparable products are the only reasonable quide.


Tuesday, November 20, 2001 #4900
I am trying to estimate past reach & Frequency for a transportation trade industry print campaign -- and based on that set R&F goals for 2002. I have gathered the following information: Target universe in US, Asia and Europe; each publication's circulation to that target (where available); duplication (very limited availability of this from these pubs). Given this information, what formula could I use to (gu)estimate reach & Frequency for this Trade plan? Alternatively, what other measures could I offer to my client to measure a recommended media plans effectiveness (i.e. Competitive SOV)?

The Media Guru Answers(Wednesday, November 21, 2001 ):
The simple formula begins by calculating audience-divided-by-universe to estimate ratings (probability of exposure). Multiplying together all the negative probabilities gives you the reach, disregarding specific duplication. In other words, if you get a rating of 14% of target, the negative probability is 86%. Then, two issues of that publication have a combined negative probability of 0.86 X 0.86 or 0.7396. Thus the probable "reach" is 1 - 0.7386 or 26%. This reflects a rando likelihood of dulication of roughly 14%. In reality, there is more than just this random duplication between two issues of the same trade title, probably 50%+, so a better estimate of the reach would be 14% + 50% of 14%, or 21% reach.

For a good guestimate, combine all your insertions this way, using 60% duplication between repeats in the same title and 30% between different titles. Use judgement about titles from different countries which may have virtually no mutual duplication.

SOV is another comparitive tool. Going beyond relative communication and relative spending gets quite speculative.


Thursday, August 09, 2001 #4648
Guru, I'm trying to figure out a reach & Frequency of magazines which aren't measured. For discussion purposes, lets say my target base was 100,000. I am recommending 5 magazines with a total circ. of 80,000. However, I will be running in each about 5X over the course of 1 year. To make matters worse, I have no idea of the duplication between these mags. Without measured media, how do I figure an approx. R&F?

The Media Guru Answers(Saturday, August 11, 2001 ):
The first step to a crude estimate is to determine the target readers-per-copy (RPC of your largest circ book. With an average of 16,000 ( your 80,000 total across all 5), perhaps one is double the average or 32,000. If it has 2 target rpc, or 64,000 then your reach minimum is 64%. If all the books average 2 rpc, your schedule of 5 insertions in each of the 5 books has 320,000 impressions or 320 GRP in a base of 100,000.

Assume each additional title adds at least one reach point. Now your reach will be somwhere between 68% and 95% (arbitrary upper limit). With 320 GRP, your reach / Freq is now somewhere between 68 / 4.7 and 95 / 4.3. Refining your rpc may narrow the range.

Or, if you have circ and rpc estimates, Telmar has software which can produce better projections.


Tuesday, July 31, 2001 #4621
Hello Media Guru Is there software available that will have reach and frequency information for Trade publications. If not what is the best way to calculate this information?

The Media Guru Answers(Tuesday, July 31, 2001 ):
Programs like Telmar's print planning systems can process Intelliquest (computer and tech trades), as well as some others which exist in the medical and other fields. The software can also estimate R&F for other, unmeasured trade titles if you have circulation and reader-per-copy estimates.


Wednesday, January 17, 2001 #4103
When was the last time the reach & Frequency Curve was updated? And what is the significance of that?

The Media Guru Answers(Wednesday, January 17, 2001 ):
reach, as we use it, is a mathematical calculation, based on average performance of actual schedules similar to the ones for which we are trying to estimate audience accumulation for a plan. A large number of actual schedules are evaluated from survey research such as Nielsen. Because reach is a factor of duplication, as a schedule grow in size, the reach added by each increment is less and less. When reach is graphed against an axis of GRP or insertions or dollars, an asymptotic "curve" like the one below, is drawn. The actual formula which descibes this graphic curve is what is in reach evaluation software. Typically it is a regression of the frequencies vs GRP levels, because frequency, too, is linear.

The Guru imagines you are thinking of TV reach, but could be referring to radio, magazines, or internet, etc. There are different "curves" for any given medium / daypart / demographic / mix situation. If you use Nielsen actual data, the "curves" are -- in effect -- continuously updated. If you use other media software like Telmar or its competitors, you need to ask your representative how recent their update of formulae is. Curves based on reach vs GRP are not very variable over time unless there is a major change in the medium.

For example, Telemundo's Hispanic TV reach system "STRETCH2," was updated in 1998 (by running new Nielsen actual schedules), 5 years after its introduction . There was no significant change in reaches.

But looking at general TV reach curves from the days before cable was significant, versus today's would show big differences.


Wednesday, December 13, 2000 #4041
My question is regarding print measurement. For a consumer print campaign (magazines, regional) I've been asked to provide a pithy statement (to be read by a board of directors with limited marketing savvy) adressing the effectiveness of the proposed print campaign. Our account planner asked for reach and frequency, which I don't believe I can provide. I can provide circulation and readership (which would equate to reach, I believe, but that doesn't account for duplication). I am to complete the sentence "This plan results in..." Am I missing something? Thanks!

The Media Guru Answers(Sunday, December 17, 2000 ):
You have not made clear why you believe you cannot provide reach and frequency. Once you have the readership of individual publications you can begin to combine their audiences in a rough way, by "random probability." This method will understate duplication somewhat, because related publications and particularly multiple issues of the same publication duplicate more than merely randomly. Using duplication between simialr national magazines, as documented by services like MRI, you can reasonable estimate the duplication in your own schedule and thereby estimate your reach and frequency.


Monday, July 10, 2000 #3611
Are you aware of any research studies that have tried to estimate the average or typical reach of general market media across multiple ethnic groups (Asians, Latinos & Blacks)?

The Media Guru Answers(Monday, July 10, 2000 ):
Many studies have done this. Nielsen for TV, Arbitron for radio, Simmons for print and mutlimedia. Often such studies address one group at a time, particularly when language is part of the defintion of the group.


Wednesday, April 12, 2000 #3393
What is the radio industry standard for a denominator such as CPM in print media. The C/RP is fine for comparisons in the same DMA, but what about cross-DMA comparisons?

The Media Guru Answers(Wednesday, April 12, 2000 ):
CPM works in radio, too, and it's the right metric to use across markets. Arbitron reports thousands as well as rating, so it's always available. To get a rough estimate of CPM, divide CPP by 1% of the target universe expressed in thousands; Cost Per Point is the cost of reaching one percent (one rating points' worth) of the universe.


Thursday, March 02, 2000 #3275
Guru, any thoughts on how to estimate % trial as a result of advertising (effective reach 50% at 3.6+ effective freq. print plan, only medium).The brand has done little advertising,has limited awareness(8% unaided) in a moderately competitive category(indigestion remedies). I have factored the target group pop.(W55+) by the incidence of the condition, then further adjusted by % likely to treat the condition, to arrive at a "Total Potential Prospects". At this point I would like to estimate the % that can be persuaded to trial, to determine estimated prospects and potential sales, but I have no historical advertising or client data on which to base the expected return. Would you base return on current awareness levels, or current SOM? No growth expected in the category,assume trial at the expense of the competition. I am attempting to devise a systematic method of determining ideal effective reach,linked to sales objectives, as I am not content to leave it at "maximum affordable at effective freq. level" Sorry for all the blather, but your thoughts and wisdom would be much appreciated. R.

The Media Guru Answers(Saturday, March 04, 2000 ):
What you seem to need is a persuasiveness measure: what is the percent who would try the product (purchase intent) with and without advertising exposre? Many marketers have done such research and, if available, it can be factored against your "total potential prospects."


Monday, April 12, 1999 #2440
Are there general guidelines or benchmarks for percentages of advetising budgets devoted to alternative media like the Internet relative to print media? If so, what are the usual ranges?

The Media Guru Answers(Tuesday, April 13, 1999 ):
The Guru does not think there are such benchmarks nor does he believe there should be.

When such guidelines arise, they are ususally based on audience missing from a traditionally strong medium. Guidelines for investment in cable versus broadcast tv which arose 15 years ago are such an example. So are recent guidelines in use for investment in Hispanic media.

But there is no evidence that the web is taking audience from magazines. One such study put forward bu an agency has been pretty much debunked by the magazine Publishers of America.

So, to create such a percentage guideline for yourself, you would need to estimate the portion of your target no longer available through print.

Otherwise, if your target group uses the web heavily and you believe the web can add reach more efficiently than more traditional media at some point of the budget, or that it can deliver a required, differnt message, then justify it plan by plan, not with an abstract "guideline."


Monday, July 06, 1998 #1937
Dear Guru, I'm trying to find info on the relationship between reach and frequency known as the prime axiom in media planning. Such as, what it is, why is it useful and how is it directly or indirectly measured? Also, I need research on the volatility of broadcast media. For instance, how can broadcast media avoid law suits if they fail to run a commercial. I'm frantically completing a take home exam for a graduate class and can't find research on these topics. Any help you can give would be greatly appreciated. I'll let you know if we get an "A."

The Media Guru Answers(Tuesday, July 07, 1998 ):
One wonders at the sort of course where these terms matter but are not thoroughly taught. reach and Frequency are the weights and measures of a media plan.
  • "reach" tells you how many different people are exposed to an advertising schedule. It is commonly expressed as a percentage of a target group's population. E.g. 75 percent reach among women 18-49.
  • "Frequency" tells you the average number of exposure to the schedule experienced by the people reached.
The usefulness should be obvious: no matter how great or impactful an ad may be, it will not sell product unless it reaches enough people and reaches them frequently enough to have an effect on their behavior.

The various research tools media planners use which measure the audience of TV shows, radio stations, magazines, etc can also tell us how many people are reached by schedules of several uses of theses programs and books. From these direct measurements, statistical models are built which can estimate the reach and frequency of schedules being planned. Media Planners can therefore compare alternate schedules to determine which ones will best meet reach/frequency goals.

Thinking of pure arithmetic relationships, reach and frequency are linked with GRPs -- Gross Rating Points. When the ratings (audience as percent of target group) of all the individual ads in a schedule are added up, the resulting total is GRP. GRP divided by reach = frequency and reach X frequency = GRP. 2. Mistakes happen. Fine print in contracts protects broadcasters against liability if they inadvertently miss airing a commercial, or deliberately do so because a higher paying advertiser comes along, or because the decide to air a news special. etc. Their only obligation is typically to give a "makegood," another commercial location with equal or better quality.


Thursday, May 28, 1998 #1610
1.Please, where can I find "Archives" by topic? 2.I have seen a table showing Awareness Level correlat ed to Target GRPs.Could you, please, tell me how they estimate Awareness Level? 3. I also have seen a table showing Audience engagement in various activities when average commercial is aired. Would you, please, tell me how the information is obtain ed? Is it from a national panel? If yes, does this panel also provide audience data? Thank you, Inocima.

The Media Guru Answers(Tuesday, June 02, 1998 ):
1) The Guru Archives may be accessed from their link on the Media Guru Page. In the next few days, we will be adding a search engine to allow you to find all all past Guru answers on the topics of your choice.

2) The Guru isn't familiar with the table you have seen. Since you are writing from Brazil, it could be based on research totally unfamiliar to the Guru. The proper way for such a table to have been created would use just estimates of awareness, but actual survey results. An advertiser or agency which has conducted many awareness studies and correlated them with actual GRP's of the plans running in synchronization with the studies could create such a table.

In fact, just a few actual measurements could be the basis of a table if it is assumed that the awareness / GRP relationship follows some sort of curve as does the reach / GRP relationship. The Guru is familiar with one formula for predicting awareness based on GRP, which came from analyzing several plans and surveys. In essence, it predicted that when there was any significant starting awareness, awareness declined in any week where there were less than 100 GRP.

3) Again, Brazil's audience engagement data is not familiar to the Guru. In the U.S. such data usually comes from secondary sources such as our Simmons or MRI, which ask these questions but are primarily print audience and product usage studies.


Thursday, January 04, 1996 #1800
How to estimate demographic editions for magazines in IntelliQuest, Simmons CompPro and/or John Adams' Studies for coverage, composition and reach/frequency purposes.

The Media Guru Answers(Friday, February 02, 1996 ):
One good way is to use Telmar's "Prototyper" which can estimate magazine audience based on modelling from known magazines and/or indices on known demographic differences between basic and demographic editions. Composition and coverage results can be used in reach and frequency analyses. Telmar supports all three of the data sets you mention. Send mail to sales@telmar.com for more information about their prototyper.

Other magazine analysis systems like Choices and Memri have similar protyping processes, and may support some or all of the data resources you list



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