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Guru Search Results: 8 matches were found

Saturday, November 29, 2003 #6282
Is there a method for "manually" calculating the reach/frequency of network TV/radio? I know other options exist (Telmar, for example) but would prefer to have my students do it this way if possible.

The Media Guru Answers(Sunday, November 30, 2003 ):
25-30+ years ago, planners worked with tables of GRPs by medium or program frequency, etc, baseds on averages of many fully calculated actual measurements but not full scale calculation, which would involve treating each commerical individually. While there might be some value in learning how to take a set of observations and develop a curve, trying to make these base calculations for each plan seems pointless.

The purely manual calculation is extremely complex. For example, in print, as input, you need average issue audience, duplication between issues of the same publication and duplication between each possible pair of different publications. These must be combined using a complex formula such as the Beta-binomial function. There are variants of this formula, which might be preferred, depending on media type and other variables

Wednesday, January 17, 2001 #4103
When was the last time the Reach & Frequency Curve was updated? And what is the significance of that?

The Media Guru Answers(Wednesday, January 17, 2001 ):
Reach, as we use it, is a mathematical calculation, based on average performance of actual schedules similar to the ones for which we are trying to estimate audience accumulation for a plan. A large number of actual schedules are evaluated from survey research such as Nielsen. Because reach is a factor of duplication, as a schedule grow in size, the reach added by each increment is less and less. When reach is graphed against an axis of GRP or insertions or dollars, an asymptotic "curve" like the one below, is drawn. The actual formula which descibes this graphic curve is what is in reach evaluation software. Typically it is a regression of the frequencies vs GRP levels, because frequency, too, is linear.

The Guru imagines you are thinking of TV reach, but could be referring to radio, magazines, or internet, etc. There are different "curves" for any given medium / daypart / demographic / mix situation. If you use Nielsen actual data, the "curves" are -- in effect -- continuously updated. If you use other media software like Telmar or its competitors, you need to ask your representative how recent their update of formulae is. Curves based on reach vs GRP are not very variable over time unless there is a major change in the medium.

For example, Telemundo's Hispanic TV reach system "STRETCH2," was updated in 1998 (by running new Nielsen actual schedules), 5 years after its introduction . There was no significant change in reaches.

But looking at general TV reach curves from the days before cable was significant, versus today's would show big differences.

Thursday, August 03, 2000 #3670
we're an ad agency that places a lot of radio locally. recently we've been experiencing a lot of traffic mistakes - none of them has been our fault - but it makes me wonder if there's something not clear in our traffic system. Do you know of any good "error-proof" traffic system? and how would you approach a client when traffic errors happen? thanks.

The Media Guru Answers(Sunday, August 06, 2000 ):
Nothing is really error proof. Without knowing what the error was, it is hard for the Guru to respond fully.

If it's not the agency's fault then the Guru has to assume that either a shipping error by your duplication house or an error in which commercial was aired by the station.

Traffic systems are basically instruction issuing systems. All they can be expected to do is develop correct instructions and synchronized them correctly with media buys. If that is happening correctly then it truly isn't your fault. If your dupe house is shipping incorrectly when the instructions regarding what to ship where were correctly issued, then advise your client that you are holding the duplicator responsible for any diect financial loss due to the error, and that you are changing vendors . . . and do so.

If the station aired the wrong commerical or wrong rotation or wrong schedule, again advise the client you hold the stations responsible for credit or make-good . . . and do so. Also consider barring the stations from consideration if possible, if they repeat the errors.

Monday, April 24, 2000 #3413
Which medium (TV, radio, print, direct mail)does the Internet have the highest duplication with in terms of usage?

The Media Guru Answers(Monday, April 24, 2000 ):
This question isn't really answerable as stated. TV, radio, Print and (in theory) direct mail reach everyone, including all internet users. So, with this broad question, all media are tied at 100% duplication.

Specific schedules of traditional media , specific DM lists and specific web sites will have different duplication rates, and different frequency distributions. Or, you could determine something like "webusers are less likely to be heavy viewers of TV than heavy readers of magazines."

Friday, April 30, 1999 #2481
Is there any way to calculate duplication across a media plan using several media (e.g. print and radio and TV), or can I only get a duplication analysis within a media (radio duplicaton and then another duplication factor for print, etc , etc) I use telmar for research with simmons and arbitron access and we also use JDS for buys.

The Media Guru Answers(Friday, April 30, 1999 ):
The standard assumption in media planning is that duplication between different media is purely at random. Therefore, the random probability formula is used:
  • Express the reach of each medium as a decimal (50% reach = 0.5)
  • Multiply the reach of one medium by another to determine the duplication.
  • Subtract the duplication from the sum of the two reaches to get the net reach

So, if you have a 40% reach in TV and a 55% reach in Print, multiply
0.4 x 0.55 to get 0.22
subtract 0.22 from 0.4+.55 and get 0.73 or
73% reach of the combined media.

There are a variety of ways to do the calculation. The Guru actually prefers to use the probablilty of not seeing each medium (reach as a decimal subtracted from 1.0) When these are multiplied they give the net probability of not seeing any of the media. When this result is subtracted from 1, the final result is net reach. This style is particulary useful for combining several media at once.The example would combine this way:

  • 1-0.4 = 0.6
  • 1-0.55 = 0.45
  • 0.6 x 0.45 = 0.27
  • 1-0.27 = 0.73 or

    73% reach.

Telmar's "Media Mix" program uses these assumptions.

Monday, April 05, 1999 #2431
Dear Guru, I have a question regarding %US coverage with spot radio. An old boss of mine who has recently left the company had used DMA %ages rather than metro %ages when reflecting total US penetration on a spot radio buy we did. I am unsure as to why this was done. Can you provide a rationale for using DMA numbers here? Thanks.

The Media Guru Answers(Monday, April 05, 1999 ):
To some extent it represents TV thinking and to another, it's more realistic.

DMA's are really a TV-defined area. Every U.S.county is assigned to one DMA or another -- except for some oddities in Alaska. So the sum of all DMAs is 100% of the U.S. with no duplication. The definition is based on which TV market gets the bulk of a county's viewing. In each market, the central city VHF stations generally reach the whole DMA. Spot TV buys are usually planned on a DMA rating/GRP basis.

radio, on the other hand, is usally planned on a metro point basis. Even the strongest radio stations, audience-wise, rarely reach the outer areas of DMA's. In each DMA there are one or more Metros. Because the population of the DMAs concentrates in the metros, buys in the metros are treated as if they covered whole DMAs, and indeed, radio coverage is gernerally wider than the metro.

In the U.S. there are roughly 10 times as many radio stations as TV sations, many surviving because they cover out-of-the way areas, but others simply because we will buy small, select audiences. Consider the New York DMA. Largest in population, one of the smallest in geography, but with about 50 reportable commercial radio stations and about 9 commercial TV stations.

Wednesday, October 02, 1996 #1134
what is your view on the "accordion assumption"?

The Media Guru Answers(Wednesday, October 02, 1996 ):
By the "accordion assumption" the Guru assumes that you arereferring to the situation in radio, for example, where 25 spots ineach of 4 weeks is considered the same as 100 spots in 1 week.

In general the Guru believes that it will slightly underestimate thereach. Since there is a larger potential audience over 4 weeksthan over just 1 week, it is reasonable to expect less duplication with the same number of spots over the longer period. However, in atypical schedule, the differnce will likely be small. Unfortunately there is little in the way of concrete data to make more than just a small general adjustment when using a longer period.

You might consider posing this question to the "Media PlanDiscussion List" and see what opinions you can ilicit fromthat group.

Saturday, April 15, 1995 #1850
I,m working in a concept here in Miami in where I will add all the ratings for all the Spanish-language radio stations and present the total as one radio station. Can this be acceptable?. If the answer is "yes" what do I need from Telmar?

The Media Guru Answers(Saturday, April 15, 1995 ):
1) To whom do you intend to present this? It would not be acceptable to present this as an advertising vehicle. The top stations in Miami, except WXDJ/WRMA, have contracts with radio representatives like Caballero and Katz.

2) It would not be acceptable to advertising agencies to present this as a single advertising audience, because there would be duplication between the stations, rather than the audiences additive, unless the spots were "roadblocked," which is to say that a given spot runs at the exact same moment on all stations.

Telmar software for radio planning includes: Generic radio Planner, radio Plan (requires access to Arbitron data), and radio Ranker (requires access to Arbitron data).

Contact us for more information.