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 Wednesday, March 09, 2011 #7835

Dear Guru,
I am planning a schedule with print and internet in California only. My target is California residents age 18 and older. I am using MRI data for a print reach to a target of A18+ who live in California. I am using comScore Plan Metrix R&F data for a target of adults 18+ (national online audience). My questions are: #1 Can I combine these reaches using random duplication and caveat that we are making the reasonable assumption that the state only reach of teh properties we are buying match the national reach. #2 Can I combine these using Telmar's Quick Mix program? If so, would I use the MRI population since it matches our target audience of A18+ in CA? #3 When combining an internet number based on total population online with a print number based on ALL adults, do I need to weight the online number at all? Thank you for your help!
 The Media Guru Answers(Wednesday, March 09, 2011 ):

You first must decide whether you need to report reach on a total population or internet user basis. Total
is more sensible.
You will convert your internet reach to a total population basis before you combine with print. random combination is appropriate. But you should consider whether reach in California is actually comparable to U.S. you should be able to find differences in internet and specific site penetration for California.
 Tuesday, January 11, 2011 #7824

I have been stuck at home for 3 days due to an snow and ice storm. I need to get my client the total reach and frequency for a cable network buy. I have the R&F for my cable network buy (one specific network) and I need to combine it with another cable network buy with mutible networks. I have the R&F for each buy. Is there a way to give them at least a close guestimate?
 The Media Guru Answers(Wednesday, January 12, 2011 ):

Click here to see past Guru responses regarding combining reaches
Review those that discuss "random combination."
The method will overstate the combination of two cable schedules by perhaps 2  5%.
 Thursday, June 04, 2009 #7699

We have been using the following formula to add reach from month to month for our online campaigns: (R1+R2)(R1*(R2/100))*.96. After some research on your site, the initial part of the formula seems to be the formula for random probability but I'm not sure where the multiplying it by .96 came from. Any thoughts? Could that be another estimate on duplication?
 The Media Guru Answers(Saturday, June 06, 2009 ):

Applying a factor like "0.96" is an old technique to adjust random duplication (which, as you say, is the first part of your formula) for the fact that duplication in some cases is somewhat greater than simply random.
Between different media, such as print and tv, it is thought to be truly random, that is, there is no greater likelihood that a newspaper reader of your campaign will see your tv campaign, than any other two random events. However, between two elements of the same medium, like two TV dayparts, there is a more than simply random chance of duplication.
That is the traditional case for using a factor like 0.96.
Between consecutive time periods of the same medium, as in your case, the Guru expectss a much greater chance of duplication. You are looking at new exposures of the same vehicle, which should be represented as accumulating along one sharply flattening asymptotic curve (see below). It's a "cume," not a "combination." random combination is far too optimistic. Unduplicated users from the first few months to the next added would probably become virtually total unless each month used unique, unrelated sites.
 Tuesday, February 24, 2009 #7667

Do you know where I can get the formula for random duplication? I am trying to combine Stations/Dayparts together to show one over all reach. Thanks in advance.
 The Media Guru Answers(Tuesday, February 24, 2009 ):

Click here to see past Guru responses about random combination.
 Saturday, May 10, 2008 #7545

My client, has asked us to include in our media plans, a combined r/f total. Meaning, she wants us to take the r/f that is planned for Cable, planned for print, planned for internet, etc. and combine them for a plan total? Is there a formula for this. Can it be done? Thanks!
 The Media Guru Answers(Saturday, May 10, 2008 ):

It's a fairly simple process; click here to see Click here to see past Guru discussion and demonstrations of the calculation.
 Wednesday, June 13, 2007 #7364

How do I determine reach and frequency of a media mix that includes television, radio, print and online? Also, how do I calculate newspaper reach? Is it the same as coverage? Can I calculate by demo? Thank you
 The Media Guru Answers(Wednesday, June 13, 2007 ):

Once you have the pieces, combine using "random probability"
Coverage (a HH percentage) is the same as rating or onetime reach. Demographic reach may be determined in Newspapers. See our eTelmar for reach calculation tools.
 Monday, May 28, 2007 #7339

What is the "Sainsbury" formula and is there a difference between unique circulation and paid circulation? Thank you!
 The Media Guru Answers(Monday, May 28, 2007 ):

The Sainsbury formula is a method for combining the reaches of schedules in different media. It varies from the simple random probability method which is based on the generally accepted assumption that there is no particular correlation between exposure to one medium and another. Sainsbury varies by adding a small adjustment to account for an assumed slightly morethanjustrandom probability that those exposed to an advertiser's schedule in one medium will also be exposed to its schedule in the next medium. Typically, the adjustment is about a 5% deduction from the result of the random combination.
As you will see at the link shown, we may vary in our arithmetic expression of the probability equation (for the same result), so we can express the Sainsbury formula as (0.95 x random probability).
Unique circulation and paid circulation are unrelated terms.  Paid circulation refers to the number of copies which are actually bought for money at the newsstand or by paid subscription, rather than distributed free or at such a discounted rate that the circulation auditor no longer qualifies the copies as "paid."
 "Unique" is more commonly an intrnet audience term. Perhaps you are thinking of "unduplicated" audience which only counts readers once, if they read two or more issues.
 Wednesday, April 04, 2007 #7309

Who is the founder of random Media combination theory? Thank you
 The Media Guru Answers(Wednesday, April 04, 2007 ):

The Guru would not consider this a "theory" per se, nor that there is a "founder."
The "random" concept is basic statistics: when the probablity of occurrence of two unrelated phenomena is known, then the probablity of both occurring is calculated by the product of the two probabilites. In media terms, this means:
Multiplying the two reaches together gives the probability of both reaching the target, which is not reach, but duplication.Of course, the reach of different media schedules reaching the same target are not truly unrelated phenomena, and various adjustments to pure random have been promulgated by many practitioners.
 Friday, June 29, 2001 #4538

Hello again,
I have two questions about calculating reach and frequency that I have been unable to find in the archives of past responses. Perhaps you can help?
1. I normally use the formula (a+b)(.a*b) to determine combined reach of two mediums, such as radio and print. How do I calculate the combined reach of more than two? The plan I am working on includes spot TV, spot radio and local newspaper.
2. Is it possible to determine a combined reach for more than one market or should each market be reported separately? In the past, I have provided separate delivery for each market in the same plan with a total number of gross impressions for the whole plan. Is this correct?
Thanks in advance!
 The Media Guru Answers(Friday, June 29, 2001 ):

1. This common formula is based on an assumption that different media duplicate their audiences according to random probability. Therefore if you follow this assumption, media may be added to combinations of media in a "chain" of the same formula. So, once you have combined TV and Radio, you can use this combination as your "a" and then combine it with newspaper as "b."
2. You can combine reaches across markets by doing a weighted average. Multiply the reach in each market by the percent of U.S. in each market. Add all the products and divide by the sum of the % U.S.
 Friday, May 04, 2001 #4368

Media Guru, please help. How do I calculate reach and frequency for a twoweek, twonewspaper buy? We are placing 4 ads per week (total of 8 ads for the schedule) on Newspaper #1, which has a maximum reach of 9% of our target. Newspaper #2 will carry 2 ads per week (4 ads for the schedule) with a maximum reach of 23% of our target. Please advise. Thanks!
 The Media Guru Answers(Sunday, May 06, 2001 ):

Find some example newspaper R&Fs at The Newspaper Advertsing Associations Marketscope site.
In very general terms, you can estimate some parameters. If newspaper A has a 9% maximum reach, it probably has a single copy reach of around 7%. If B has a maximum of 23%, then it likely has single copy reach around 20%. So the outside bounds of reach for your schedule are a minimum of 20, but more likely closer to 25, the random combination of the two papers' single copies. The outside maximum is 32 ( the 9% plus the 23% maxima), but more likely closer to 30 (random again).
A solid estimate of 2530 reach for your schedule should be good enough, but you could use the eTelmar payperuse system for a specific calculation.
Frequency, of course, will be the sum of the single copy audeinces of all insertions (GRP) ÷ the reach estimate.
 Thursday, March 16, 2000 #3326

Dear Guru:
I would like to know if there is any equation to calculate media mix reach?
 The Media Guru Answers(Thursday, March 16, 2000 ):

There are several, equivalent ways to express the arithmetic to combines media according to random probability, which has been found generally adequate for the purpose of multimedia combination.
Here's an easy one:  Work with two reaches at a time
 Treat the reach of each medium as a decimal (50 reach is 0.5)
 Add reach of medium A and medium B
 Multiply reach of medium A by Reach of medium B
 Subtract the product of the multiplication from the sum of the addition
Example:  Reach of medium A = 40, reach of medium B = 55
 0.4 + 0.55 = 0.95
 0.40 x 0.55 = 0.22
 0.95  0.22 = 0.73
 Combined reach is 73
To add additional media, treat the combination as medium A and the next medium as B.
In some cases, a planner may have access to research which shows that an adjustment should be made for actual, measured, duplication between different media, rather than use the "random probability" formula above. In that case, more sophisticated reach calculating software packages, such as those from
Telmar allow you to make the calculation and build in known adjustments.
 Tuesday, September 14, 1999 #2792

What can you tell me about reachbased planning?
Thank you in advance.
 The Media Guru Answers(Tuesday, September 14, 1999 ):

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The usual assumption is that print and broadcast duplicate with random probability, there is no special, greater or lesser likelihood that persons in the audience of the print schedule will also be or not be in the audience of the broadcast schedule.
Mechanically. the combination may be calculated in a few equivalent ways. The Guru finds it easiest to consider the reaches as decimals (50% reach = 0.50). Subtract the reach of print from 1 and multiply this by 1minus the reach of broadcast. Suppose print has a 40% reach and broadcast has 55%. By subtracting 0.4 from 1 (1  0.4 = 0.6), you have the probabilty of the target not being exposed to print. Subtract 0.55 from 1 to get the probability of not being exposed to broadcast (1  0.55 = 0.45)
Multiply these two together (0.6 * 0.45 = 0.27) and you have determined there is a 27% probability of people not being exposed to either of the combined media, or a 73% reach.
This formula is typically used in media software to combine different media. Certainly there are cases where there is a somewhat better than random probabilty of media duplication, such as TV Guide combining with a TV schedule, but that's the exception, calling for judgement.
 Wednesday, September 01, 1999 #2759

Is the random probability formula used to combine reach for different media also valid when looking at effective reach (i.e. 4+ level)?
 The Media Guru Answers(Thursday, September 02, 1999 ):

If you mean, can you combine the 4+ reach of one medium with the 4+ reach of another medium to get the 4+ reach of the two combined media, the answer is no.
Among those who were reached 2 or 3 times by each medium, some will now be reached 4 or more times and some will not, yet these people are not considered by combining only the two four+ groups. There are also those reached only once by the first medium and three times by the other, etc. A new, overall calculation of the frequency distribution must be done, to determine the 4+ of the combination.
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