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 Wednesday, March 09, 2011 #7835

Dear Guru,
I am planning a schedule with print and internet in California only. My target is California residents age 18 and older. I am using MRI data for a print reach to a target of A18+ who live in California. I am using comScore Plan Metrix R&F data for a target of adults 18+ (national online audience). My questions are: #1 Can I combine these reaches using random duplication and caveat that we are making the reasonable assumption that the state only reach of teh properties we are buying match the national reach. #2 Can I combine these using Telmar's Quick Mix program? If so, would I use the MRI population since it matches our target audience of A18+ in CA? #3 When combining an internet number based on total population online with a print number based on ALL adults, do I need to weight the online number at all? Thank you for your help!
 The Media Guru Answers(Wednesday, March 09, 2011 ):

You first must decide whether you need to report reach on a total population or internet user basis. Total
is more sensible.
You will convert your internet reach to a total population basis before you combine with print. random combination is appropriate. But you should consider whether reach in California is actually comparable to U.S. you should be able to find differences in internet and specific site penetration for California.
 Friday, February 25, 2011 #7833

How do i calculate reach, if I only have the GRPs and total target population?
 The Media Guru Answers(Wednesday, March 02, 2011 ):

Reach is complex calculation. It considers dupication between each advertising occasion on the same vehicle and between occasions on different vehicles.
Realistically, you need software designed for this purpose, or tables prepared from the results of such software comparing GRP to reach results and considering key variables.
See You need a computer with software such as that offered by Telmar. The calculation is extremely complex. For example, in print, as input, you need average issue audience, duplication between issues of the same publication and duplication between each possible pair of different publications. These must be combined using a complex formula such as the Betabinomial function.
There are variants of this formula, which might be preferred, depending on media type and other variables
Or tables prepared from the results of such software comparing GRP to reach results and considering key variables. Very crudely, you could estimate by combining the ratings of all your spots, according to random probabilty. Click here to see past Guru resposes about this.. This would be an overstimate
 Wednesday, August 25, 2010 #7798

Dear guru:
if our media mix include TV and NP,how to canculate the total effect of the campaign, which unit can be used,reach(000) or Gross impression? we can get the TV and NP data from two data system, thank in advance.
 The Media Guru Answers(Sunday, August 29, 2010 ):

Assuming "NP" means national print, you need a computer with software such as that offered by Telmar.
The calculation is extremely complex. For example, in print, as input, you need average issue audience, duplication between issues of the same publication and duplication between each possible pair of different publications. These must be combined using a complex formula such as the Betabinomial function.
There are variants of this formula, which might be preferred, depending on media type and other variables. TV needs simlilar computer support. Click here to see past Guru responses regarding combining reaches
 Thursday, June 04, 2009 #7699

We have been using the following formula to add reach from month to month for our online campaigns: (R1+R2)(R1*(R2/100))*.96. After some research on your site, the initial part of the formula seems to be the formula for random probability but I'm not sure where the multiplying it by .96 came from. Any thoughts? Could that be another estimate on duplication?
 The Media Guru Answers(Saturday, June 06, 2009 ):

Applying a factor like "0.96" is an old technique to adjust random duplication (which, as you say, is the first part of your formula) for the fact that duplication in some cases is somewhat greater than simply random.
Between different media, such as print and tv, it is thought to be truly random, that is, there is no greater likelihood that a newspaper reader of your campaign will see your tv campaign, than any other two random events. However, between two elements of the same medium, like two TV dayparts, there is a more than simply random chance of duplication.
That is the traditional case for using a factor like 0.96.
Between consecutive time periods of the same medium, as in your case, the Guru expectss a much greater chance of duplication. You are looking at new exposures of the same vehicle, which should be represented as accumulating along one sharply flattening asymptotic curve (see below). It's a "cume," not a "combination." random combination is far too optimistic. Unduplicated users from the first few months to the next added would probably become virtually total unless each month used unique, unrelated sites.
 Monday, March 16, 2009 #7671

How can you calculate TV reach if you only know viewership, rating and share (obtained from Nielsen data)?
 The Media Guru Answers(Tuesday, March 17, 2009 ):

You can't. You need duplication between spots data. Or a model like our own eTelmar's.
A very crude overestimate might be done by
random combinarion
 Tuesday, February 24, 2009 #7667

Do you know where I can get the formula for random duplication? I am trying to combine Stations/Dayparts together to show one over all reach. Thanks in advance.
 The Media Guru Answers(Tuesday, February 24, 2009 ):

Click here to see past Guru responses about random combination.
 Wednesday, September 24, 2008 #7608

If we don't have software to combine different reaches on a media plan, how do we establish an acceptable, unduplicated reach and frequency when buying both boradcast and cable, and combining it with print and internet? Also, can we have duplication in broadcast since TV is a "moment in time" rather than print pubs where you can subscribe to more than one but you aren't reading more than one at any given time? Do ratings account for multiple stations or networks viewed?
 The Media Guru Answers(Wednesday, September 24, 2008 ):

Click here to see past Guru responses regarding combining reaches.
Reach is calculated over a period of time, typically 4 weeks, so that TV as well as print may duplicate. Ratings are about a point in time, multiple stations viewed are not a factor, except that ratings have generally decreased as viewing choices have burgeoned.
 Wednesday, April 04, 2007 #7309

Who is the founder of random Media Combination theory? Thank you
 The Media Guru Answers(Wednesday, April 04, 2007 ):

The Guru would not consider this a "theory" per se, nor that there is a "founder."
The "random" concept is basic statistics: when the probablity of occurrence of two unrelated phenomena is known, then the probablity of both occurring is calculated by the product of the two probabilites. In media terms, this means:
Multiplying the two reaches together gives the probability of both reaching the target, which is not reach, but duplication.Of course, the reach of different media schedules reaching the same target are not truly unrelated phenomena, and various adjustments to pure random have been promulgated by many practitioners.
 Tuesday, September 13, 2005 #7010

I have a client whose target audience consists only of Insurance Brokers. I am planning a print campaign and need to justify it to the owner who wants to know only the ROI. I have one weekly business publication and two trade pubs in three markets. I also only have the circulation numbers and nothing else. What is the best way to calculate reach and frequency with this information? Can I also figure the percentage of awareness from these numbers?
 The Media Guru Answers(Saturday, September 17, 2005 ):

In trade publications, circulation tends to be heavy among qualified readers, passalong is often minimal. A conservative audience estimate is audience = circulation. Again, because of this distibution pattern, issuetoissue cume is minimal. As far as duplication between titles, random probability
is a safe estimate, but may be a bit high.
Reach becomes a maximum measure of awareness; you need to estimate the required frequency which generates awareness as well. Ad Awareness can't exceed reach.
 Wednesday, May 25, 2005 #6937

Thank you for your answer about internet grps(#6936). Another question would be, can we calculate reach for internet? and how about reach for a hispanic target
 The Media Guru Answers(Wednesday, May 25, 2005 ):

Calculating reach is ususally done in one of two ways:
Using a respondent level audience measurement such as Nielsen//Netratings
or comScoreMediaMetrix, one tracks the actual use by the relevant demographic within the sample against the schedule run.More practically, one obtains a series of such measurements and builds a model, so that one can then genralize from schedules run in the future, using variable such as # of impressions, number of sites in the mix, share of page loads on the sites, etc. The issues are what portion of the sites' reach does your schedule get and what is the duplication between sites' audiences.
For example, Yahoo might reach 40% of all those online in a month, but your buy will probably appear in less than 0.1% of all Yahoo page loads. And how many of the persons exposed to your Yahoo buy will also be exposed to your buy on MiGente.com?
Since Hispanic audience is measure by both services, the Hispanic issues are no more difficult in this scenario.
As a ballpark sort of estimate, most major sites ought to be able to tell you the number of unique visitors exposed to your schedule. This number, divided by the relevant universe will give you an estimate of reach on that site. You can combine sites' reaches by random probability unless you can get site duplication estimates from the sites.
 Tuesday, December 16, 2003 #6315

How do you calculate combined frequency. If I have a cable plan in a market with a frequency of 2.6 and a broadcast tv plan with a frequency of 6.6  what is the combined frequency?
 The Media Guru Answers(Saturday, December 20, 2003 ):

The Guru will assume you are referring to average frequency, typically considered for a four week period. One actually calculates the combined Reach and GRPs and then figures the "combined" frequency. Consider the following table. If you had run 400 GRP in broadcast and had 61 reach there would be 6.6 average frequency. If you also had 100 GRP of cable and a reach of 38, there would be an average frequency of 2.6.
GRPs are simply additive for a total of 500. Reaches must be combined by a system that recognizes duplication; "random probability" will overstate a bit when you are working with two related elements such as different kinds of TV. Probability might have estimated a combined reach of 76 here but let's suppose your algorithm estimates 72. In any case, the combined average frequency is calculated thus: divide the combined GRP (500) by the combined Reach (72) which equals 6.9; see below:
Element 
Reach 
Freq. 
GRP 
Broadcast 
61 
6.6 
400 
Cable 
38 
2.6 
100 
Total 
72 
6.9 
500 
 Monday, February 04, 2002 #5050

Is Telmar's multibasing system the same thing as Fusion? And, if I'm currently doing the random probability formula to get total reach percent, what is the difference between that and Telmars calculations? Thanks.
 The Media Guru Answers(Wednesday, February 06, 2002 ):

According to Telmar:
Multibasing preserves the integrity of a survey. It does not ascribe
answers, and as such, avoids what we call "regression to the mean",
washing away everything to averages. It preserves the leverage of a media
element against any target group, not just those that leverage on
demographics.
Telmar's R&F formulas use the actual turnover and duplication
between media that are inherent in the survey. When there is real
data, we use it.
 Tuesday, November 20, 2001 #4900

I am trying to estimate past Reach & Frequency for a
transportation trade industry print campaign  and based on that set R&F goals for 2002. I have gathered the following information: Target universe in US, Asia and Europe; each publication's circulation to that target (where available); duplication (very limited availability of this from these pubs). Given this information, what formula could I use to (gu)estimate Reach & Frequency for this Trade plan? Alternatively, what other measures could I offer to my client to measure a recommended media plans effectiveness (i.e. Competitive SOV)?
 The Media Guru Answers(Wednesday, November 21, 2001 ):

The simple formula begins by calculating audiencedividedbyuniverse to estimate ratings (probability of exposure). Multiplying together all the negative probabilities gives you the reach, disregarding specific duplication. In other words, if you get a rating of 14% of target, the negative probability is 86%. Then, two issues of that publication have a combined negative probability of 0.86 X 0.86 or 0.7396. Thus the probable "reach" is 1  0.7386 or 26%. This reflects a rando likelihood of dulication of roughly 14%. In reality, there is more than just this random duplication between two issues of the same trade title, probably 50%+, so a better estimate of the reach would be 14% + 50% of 14%, or 21% reach.
For a good guestimate, combine all your insertions this way, using 60% duplication between repeats in the same title and 30% between different titles. Use judgement about titles from different countries which may have virtually no mutual duplication.
SOV is another comparitive tool. Going beyond relative communication and relative spending gets quite speculative.
 Wednesday, June 06, 2001 #4458

I'm working on a plan that includes cable and network television. I have been asked to present a rational for different schedules on three levels of spending. If i know the programs rating point, the average CPP and the cost per spot, how can I use this information to put together the total reach/frequency of sample schedules. I'm trying to get general information at this point without contacting reps to run several schedules. I need to know how to do the math by hand without a program if it's possible. Thanks
 The Media Guru Answers(Wednesday, June 06, 2001 ):

It's no longer really reasonable to do the math by hand. The Guru has described calculating reach by "random probability" in the past. But the unique duplication patterns within tv schedules need to be accounted for either with tables reflecting many schedules' reaches or computer models.
Our own eTelmar offers low cost, single use, online reach calcuation.
You might try the R&F generator at U. Texas .
 Wednesday, December 13, 2000 #4041

My question is regarding print measurement. For a consumer print campaign (magazines, regional) I've been asked to provide a pithy statement (to be read by a board of directors with limited marketing savvy) adressing the effectiveness of the proposed print campaign. Our account planner asked for reach and frequency, which I don't believe I can provide. I can provide circulation and readership (which would equate to reach, I believe, but that doesn't account for duplication). I am to complete the sentence "This plan results in..." Am I missing something? Thanks!
 The Media Guru Answers(Sunday, December 17, 2000 ):

You have not made clear why you believe you cannot provide reach and frequency. Once you have the readership of individual publications you can begin to combine their audiences in a rough way, by "random probability." This method will understate duplication somewhat, because related publications and particularly multiple issues of the same publication duplicate more than merely randomly. Using duplication between simialr national magazines, as documented by services like MRI, you can reasonable estimate the duplication in your own schedule and thereby estimate your reach and frequency.
 Thursday, March 16, 2000 #3326

Dear Guru:
I would like to know if there is any equation to calculate media mix reach?
 The Media Guru Answers(Thursday, March 16, 2000 ):

There are several, equivalent ways to express the arithmetic to combines media according to random probability, which has been found generally adequate for the purpose of multimedia combination.
Here's an easy one:  Work with two reaches at a time
 Treat the reach of each medium as a decimal (50 reach is 0.5)
 Add reach of medium A and medium B
 Multiply reach of medium A by Reach of medium B
 Subtract the product of the multiplication from the sum of the addition
Example:  Reach of medium A = 40, reach of medium B = 55
 0.4 + 0.55 = 0.95
 0.40 x 0.55 = 0.22
 0.95  0.22 = 0.73
 Combined reach is 73
To add additional media, treat the combination as medium A and the next medium as B.
In some cases, a planner may have access to research which shows that an adjustment should be made for actual, measured, duplication between different media, rather than use the "random probability" formula above. In that case, more sophisticated reach calculating software packages, such as those from
Telmar allow you to make the calculation and build in known adjustments.
 Tuesday, September 14, 1999 #2792

What can you tell me about reachbased planning?
Thank you in advance.
 The Media Guru Answers(Tuesday, September 14, 1999 ):

>
The usual assumption is that print and broadcast duplicate with random probability, there is no special, greater or lesser likelihood that persons in the audience of the print schedule will also be or not be in the audience of the broadcast schedule.
Mechanically. the combination may be calculated in a few equivalent ways. The Guru finds it easiest to consider the reaches as decimals (50% reach = 0.50). Subtract the reach of print from 1 and multiply this by 1minus the reach of broadcast. Suppose print has a 40% reach and broadcast has 55%. By subtracting 0.4 from 1 (1  0.4 = 0.6), you have the probabilty of the target not being exposed to print. Subtract 0.55 from 1 to get the probability of not being exposed to broadcast (1  0.55 = 0.45)
Multiply these two together (0.6 * 0.45 = 0.27) and you have determined there is a 27% probability of people not being exposed to either of the combined media, or a 73% reach.
This formula is typically used in media software to combine different media. Certainly there are cases where there is a somewhat better than random probabilty of media duplication, such as TV Guide combining with a TV schedule, but that's the exception, calling for judgement.
 Thursday, August 19, 1999 #2727

The formula for calculating the reach of media vehicles is (a+b)a*b.
Please tell me the "N" formula for it,
or you have a different formula for calculating reach?
 The Media Guru Answers(Saturday, August 21, 1999 ):

Your formula is for " random probabilty," which is used to combine two different media, based on the assumption that their audience duplication is purely at random. This formula is not appropriate to combining different vehicles in the same medium, which typically have more than merely random duplication.
There are various, quite complex formulae for computing reach of various vehicles of the same medium, among them the Beta Binomial, Lamda function, and others. The Guru is not familiar with your reference to "the 'N' formula."
 Friday, April 30, 1999 #2481

Is there any way to calculate duplication across a media plan using several media (e.g. print and radio and TV), or can I only get a duplication analysis within a media (radio duplicaton and then another duplication factor for print, etc , etc)
I use telmar for research with simmons and arbitron access and we also use JDS for buys.
 The Media Guru Answers(Friday, April 30, 1999 ):

The standard assumption in media planning is that duplication between different media is purely at random. Therefore, the random probability formula is used:
 Express the reach of each medium as a decimal (50% reach = 0.5)
 Multiply the reach of one medium by another to determine the duplication.
 Subtract the duplication from the sum of the two reaches to get the net reach
So, if you have a 40% reach in TV and a 55% reach in Print, multiply
0.4 x 0.55 to get 0.22
subtract 0.22 from 0.4+.55 and get 0.73 or 73% reach of the combined media.
There are a variety of ways to do the calculation. The Guru actually prefers to use the probablilty of not seeing each medium (reach as a decimal subtracted from 1.0) When these are multiplied they give the net probability of not seeing any of the media. When this result is subtracted from 1, the final result is net reach. This style is particulary useful for combining several media at once.The example would combine this way:  10.4 = 0.6
 10.55 = 0.45
 0.6 x 0.45 = 0.27
 10.27 = 0.73 or
73% reach.
Telmar's "Media Mix" program uses these assumptions.
 Tuesday, June 09, 1998 #1886

how do i calculate reach of TV+PRESS, Is there a formula
 The Media Guru Answers(Tuesday, June 09, 1998 ):

As a rule, TV and press are thought to duplicate in a random pattern. That is, the random duplication formula is appropriate. The reach of each medium is treated as a decimal. To calculate net reach, we combine the probabilty of each medium's NOT reaching the target, to get the combined probability of neither reaching the target. The remaining people are the ones reached.
The formula works as follows when TV reach is 45 and press reach is 37.
People not reached by TV would be 0.55 of the target
People not reached by press would be 0.63 of target
Total people NOT reached are 0.55 x 0.63 or 0.35 of target.
The remainder of target is reached (1.0  0.35 = 0.65) so reach is 65
 Friday, May 29, 1998 #1613

1.what is osto's model?
2.In case of an absence of duplication data for publications, how do l calculate
the effective reach using 2 or more media vehicles? in such a scenario, is it safe
to use the random theory even if multiple readership is negligible?
 The Media Guru Answers(Tuesday, June 02, 1998 ):

1) The Guru is not familiar with Osto's model. It may be specific to India, from where you are writing.
2) The random method is a starting point. If you can find two other similar publications with measured duplication, you can use the duplication ratio from those publications. If you literally mean "effective reach," that is, reach at or above a minimum exposure level, then you need a more complex formula or a computer program like Telmar's ADplus.
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